I'm doing my thing here next week on IT and Pandemics and just finished updating the thing with a section on Australia's EI breakout. Its a horror story for anyone who is paying attention to the implications for a pandemic among humans, a real horror story, now with pitchforks and blazing faggots. This is it.
The recent outbreak of Equine Influenza in Australia is the perfect model for a human pandemic in that it demonstrates the fragility of systems, the power of the human factor, the ineffectiveness of attempts to control a virulent disease and the astronomical costs of failure.
In the 8 weeks since the outbreak, every attempt to control the virus has failed and it continues not only to spread geographically but is increasing its infection rates. In the week ending October 21 46,000 horses were known to be infected, an increase of 10,000 horses in the eighth week. While the stakes for every horse owner are enormous and every single owner has every possible reason to comply with every single regulation, the spread and infection rate is still rising and the cost is becoming horrendous.
The situation is also a perfect example of non-linear outcomes, there are about 1.2 million horses in Australia of which 46,000 are currently infected, a mere 4%, (an infection rate that is only 10% of the consensus rate for human influenza) yet every horse in the country is affected and a $6 billion plus industry may be in meltdown.
A class action law suit has now begun as horse owners look to recover the costs of that meltdown, at the date of writing the figure has already reached into the 100s of millions.
The key to the outbreak in late August 2007 is systemic failure at its strongest point; the Australian quarantine service, an organisation whose sole purpose, practise and protocol is to ensure that diseases such as EI have no chance of crossing the borders. And yet it appears that the service has been the enabler of the breach.
The sequence of events is instructive. In August 2007 there was already known to be an outbreak in Japan, the NZ Horsetalk website ran the following story on August 21.
Japan's equine flu outbreak could hobble Melbourne Cup bid
Questions remain over whether Japanese contenders in Australia's Melbourne and Caulfield Cups will be able to travel to compete in the big races after a suspected outbreak of equine flu in Japan.
[...] Race meetings in Japan were disrupted last weekend after 29 of 163 horses at a Japan Racing Association facility showed signs of influenza.
It is understand that the Japanese horses destined for the big Australian races have not been exposed, but the final decision will rest with Australian quarantine authorities.
Knowing that the horses may have been exposed, but no doubt under huge pressure from vested interests with large amounts of money at stake, the Japanese horses were allowed into the country “under quarantine” and yet, despite being completely aware of the risks they were running, EI escaped into the wild in Australia.
BTW, the horsetalk site has been doing some good writing on the subject and damn me if they haven't gathered all their stories into a timeline. First class, take a bow, what a shame all news sites don't do the same kind of thing, and as for those who drop their old stories behind a pay per View firewall, eecchh.
t is understand that the Japanese horses destined for the big Australian races have not been exposed, but the final decision will rest with Australian quarantine authorities.
==========================
shane
flights to Melbourne
Posted by: flights to Melbourne | November 11, 2009 at 10:35 AM