I posted a piece in February called Have We Just Gone Over the Oil Hump? that looked not at markets or research but rather at the behaviour, principally of the Saudis, and what it might mean. Back then their behaviour was erratic and unfathomable unless there was something going on with supply. Back then the price was around $36 a barrel. We'll be lucky to se that again.
This time however, I want to look at risk taking and what it says about underlying drivers. What we have seen throughout the Bush administration in the US, is a series of massive, cosmically massive risks being taken; I'll look at the details in a moment, and then, a few months ago, someone took another massive risk. They sent a plane load of mercenaries to stage a coup in Equatorial Guinea. They touched down in Harare on the way and Robert Mugabe busted them. But the real risk appears to be that the son of a former British PM and a peer of the British Real may have been involved.
What the hell is going on?